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Friday, July 18, 2025

What caused the Younger Dryas?

 This is not evidence based science, but best guesses and competing ideas.  From GROK

The Younger Dryas, a period of abrupt cooling around 12,900 to 11,700 years ago, is thought to have been triggered by a combination of factors, with the leading hypothesis being a disruption of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here's a concise breakdown of the primary proposed causes:

1. **Freshwater Influx from Glacial Lake Agassiz**: The most widely accepted theory suggests that a massive influx of freshwater from the melting Laurentide Ice Sheet, likely via Glacial Lake Agassiz, flooded into the North Atlantic. This freshwater disrupted the AMOC, a critical ocean current system that transports warm water northward, leading to a shutdown or weakening of the circulation. This caused a rapid drop in temperatures, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, by reducing heat transfer from the tropics to higher latitudes. 2. **Impact Hypothesis**: A controversial theory proposes that a comet or asteroid impact around 12,900 years ago triggered the cooling. Proponents suggest that an impact in North America could have caused widespread wildfires, released soot and debris into the atmosphere, and destabilized ice sheets, leading to freshwater pulses and climate disruption. Evidence includes nanodiamonds and shocked quartz at some sites, but the hypothesis lacks consensus due to inconsistent geological evidence and debates over the timing and scale of such an event. 3. **Volcanic Activity**: Some studies suggest increased volcanic activity could have contributed by releasing aerosols that blocked sunlight, cooling the planet. However, evidence for significant volcanic eruptions during this period is limited and less compelling than the freshwater hypothesis. 4. **Solar Variability or Orbital Changes**: Changes in solar output or Earth's orbital parameters (Milankovitch cycles) have been proposed as contributing factors, but these operate on much longer timescales and are unlikely to explain the rapid onset of the Younger Dryas. The freshwater-driven AMOC disruption remains the most supported explanation, backed by evidence like sediment cores showing changes in ocean salinity and temperature. However, debates persist, and some argue for a combination of factors, including possible extraterrestrial influences or regional climate feedbacks. Ongoing research continues to refine our understanding, with no single cause universally agreed upon.

Monday, December 30, 2024

10 years later ClimateCentral post update

 Back in 2014 I noticed ClimateCentral was publishing false information about winter warming in the United States

I noted the same thing going on here March 2024

Back in 2014 I didn't have direct access to the GHCN stations, so I used the NCDC data.  Using the actual weather data (unaltered) the ClimateCentral "data" looks even worse.  No doubt because they are using the  altered data and then altering it even more, or just cherry picking non-climate stations to push thier narrative.

In any case, it's an absurd situation.

In case you don't know, the reason "winters are warming faster" is an important matter, is because of the global warming theory.  It's a key prediction of the theory.

If winters are actually cooling, while the other seasons are warming, it can't be due to global warming.





Tuesday, July 23, 2024

Musings from 2014, updated

 Old post from 2014

The Heisenberg failure

Heisenberg failed in many ways while developing, or trying to develop a working reactor, and of course atomic bombs during WWII.   This is attributed by Bodanis (and others of course) to the facts that he was a theorist, while many of the others working on the same problem were trained as engineers,  And the German educational system, and the fascist mentality, which Heisenberg personified, preventing his subordinates from even mentioning his errors, much less solving fundamental problems that he had in fact created by using theoretical methods, rather than practical engineering.

This applies to current climate research, where open hostility and a refusal to even consider any other ideas when it comes to solving large problems for general circulation models.

These include (but not limited to) solar physics, atmospheric chemistry, biological forcings, clouds, precipitation, ocean circulation, large scale atmospheric changes, snow and ice, other pollutants besides CO2, vulcanism, especially undersea activity and under the ice sheets.

 The list goes on and on.

Monday, April 13, 2020

GISS update of March 22 2015 post, February data

an old blog post

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GISS will show you a map that minimizes the data, and uses the coldest period in the last century as a baseline for the anomalies.

This shows a more scientific view of just how cold February was, especially in the areas that saw records broken for both cold and snow.

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Since GISS has changed the version they use, compare the 2014 version with the current one

February 2014 version


Current version (captured April 14 2020)



Changes to displayed data Illinois State Climatologist Office (curent work in progress)


This page is linked to from https://sciencebasedclimatechange.blogspot.com/ last edit April 13 2020

Illinois State climate center (archived) Current website is https://stateclimatologist.web.illinois.edu/

State Climatologist Office for Illinois


2015 version

2001 version

For temperature, the 1800s were considerably cooler with a remarkable warming trend through about 1940, followed by a cooling trend through the early 1980s. While temperatures have warmed in recent years, they were not as warm as the 1930s.
2008 

Illinois temps 1999






2000 version









2012 version Walnut temperatures (benchmark site)



compare to actual data not adjusted, from GHNC station USC00118916 (coordinates)



actual non adjusted data



Snow data


raw data


Old version climate change section (archived)

Saturday, June 25, 2016

One reason why people feared a coming ice age

Because it was getting colder.

Tip of the hat and for more see Heller's blog for his take on this, because he is always finding old stories about the past weather and climate. Cold season shows more cooling than warm.  Same for the recent cooling in Illinois.






Monday, December 28, 2015

How wxshift.com tries to deceive you about climate change/global warming

Just saw this website today, an alarmists posted a graph from it, showing how much warmer the US has become.  I looked at a few graphs, which it generates, to show you how much your area has warmed.  Would be a great tool, but it only starts from 1970.  Lets see why.
wxshift.com
That looks frightening.  Until you check the actual data, and the adjusted data.

NCDC data
NCDC data source

100 year trend show the real story.  Even when the data was adjusted to cool the past.


NCDC adjusted data

February really shows the problem with trying to frighten people there with "how much warmer it has become".


Looks dangerous, how fast winter night time lows are rising.  Until you look at all the data.



Funny how they start the data at 1970, isn't it?

But summer have warmed there, right?  wxshift certainly tells you so.



Lets see if we can show all the data instead.  The brutal summer warming in Alabama, from wxshift.
And, a bigger look at the data for Alabama.

Even with the data adjusted to cool the warmest period, we can see why wxshift is deceptive.

Real science doesn't try to deceive you, nor would an actual scientific person not show all the relevant information.  Science is about discovering what really is going on, and why.  Not trying to sway you or deceive you.

wxshift.com for when you want to try and deceive somebody.





Tuesday, December 15, 2015

November 2015

What it actually looks like, temperature anomalies




What they want you to think it looks like



What the recent global trend sort of looks like


Or we could use this





What real data shows the trend to be (US data)




Eastern US


Central



Southern



West



And what you will never see on TV

The global February trend


(because the global warming theory predicts winter will be the season with the most warming)



Friday, August 7, 2015

Milder winters from global warming - the New York Times 2014

From the NY Times FEB. 8, 2014

An ironic piece, due to the snow that came in the winter of 2015.

Note the graphic uses only spring snow to try and persuade.

Here's the graph from the source, the Rutgers snow lab


Here's what they don't talk about.  The winter trend.


And the Fall trend.
The scientific observer might note that the fall of 2014 was the greatest snow extent since Rutgers started keeping records.  

Experience has shown the New York Times won't be reporting that story.

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Why "xkcd on the Cold Truth About Warming" is wrong

We will proceed in a scientific manner.
Is the xkcd comic true? (reproduced with permission)
Mouse over text: 'You see the same pattern all over. Take Detroit--' 'Hold on. Why do you know all these statistics offhand?' 'Oh, um, no idea. I definitely spend my evenings hanging out with friends, and not curating a REALLY NEAT database of temperature statistics. Because, pshh, who would want to do that, right? Also, snowfall records.'

It's a complicated comic, with multiple claims, and it is used to deflect commentary and concerns by people, who notice when it's really cold. So, is any of it true?

None of the black hatted characters claims are true.  And the source the comic creator used is a biased web site that publishes deceptive "science", and is also wrong on the internet.


Looking at the winter trend for Missouri shows why people complaining about the cold In Missouri (and elsewhere) are not delusional,  While temperature data doesn't show the snow and ice, that data also shows the increase in cold winters.

The Tmin (minimum daily temperature) shows it clearly, colder winters.

Comparing with the Tmax confirms it is a trend

Since trends are sensitive at times to start times, here's the 30 year trend using 2014 as the end date.  (the comic was about Jan 2014)

A 30 year trend is solid evidence for climate trends, 

You can see the areas using the GISS maps, the twent year trend for Jan-Feb makes it obvious.


The trend shows up using Jan-Mar.  

It doesn't just seem like winters are getting colder in some cities, they actually are.  It's why the xkcd comic is wrong.

That's a shame, since I really like his work.